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Elon Poll Shows Races Getting Closer
Written by Staff   
Tuesday, 01 November 2016 14:30

ELON – With days to go until Election Day, a new poll released Tuesday by Elon University shows the political races in North Carolina tightening. The latest Elon Poll shows 42 percent of likely North Carolina voters support Hillary Clinton and 41.2 percent back Donald Trump.  Support for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian and leading third-party contender, has dwindled during the past month from more than 9 percent of the vote in early October to just 2.6 percent at the end of the month.

The race continues to be split clearly along racial lines, with 100 percent of black respondents saying they plan to vote for Clinton, and 67 percent of white voters planning to vote for Trump. The gender gap has narrowed in the race, with 55 percent of women voters planning to vote for Clinton, compared to 61 percent during the second Elon Poll nearly a month ago. Men continue to prefer Trump by a 56-44 split.

"North Carolina is still very much in play for both Trump and Clinton," said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and assistant professor of political science. "The Old North State is continuing its tradition as a source of true toss-up electoral votes."

But regardless of who prevails on Nov. 8, voters appear concerned about what the next president will do once taking office, with a larger proportion of voters worried about having Trump at the helm than Clinton. Asked whether they were worried about the decisions that Trump would make as president, 44 percent said they were “very worried” and 30 percent said they were “somewhat worried.” Another 24 percent said they were “not at all worried” about the decisions Trump would make as president.

Trump supporters were found to be more likely to question the legitimacy of the election and also to fear that voter fraud might be a problem during the 2016 elections. The Elon Poll found that 83 percent of likely voters say they will accept the results of the election as valid, regardless of who wins, while 9 percent said they would not accept the results. Among Clinton supporters, 92 percent said they would accept the election results as valid, compared to 72 percent of Trump supporters.

Additionally, 36.5 percent of likely voters said election fraud will be a “major problem” this year, with a clear split on that question based on who the voter prefers in the presidential race. Among Trump voters, 60 percent view election fraud as a major problem, compared to 15 percent of Clinton voters who held the same view.

The race for governor's mansion is tied according to the poll. Incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory is tied with Roy Cooper at 44 percent among likely voters. The poll found that 7.5 percent of North Carolinians are still undecided.

"The North Carolina Governor's race will likely be a nail-biter for both sides throughout election night," Husser said.

In the U.S Senate race, Sen. Richard Burr is ahead of Democrat Deborah Ross 43.5 percent to 40 percent.

"Most analysts' early expectations were for Burr to have a comfortable lead on Ross in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina," Husser noted. "In late September polls indicated those predictions may have been premature. However, our recent results suggest that North Carolina is leaning towards the Republican incumbent as Election Day fast approaches."

Burr appears to be generating greater support among older voters, with a 10-point margin among voters 41 to 65 years old and a 4-point margin among voters 66 years old and older. Ross is benefitting from a 2-point margin among voters 40 and younger.

The Elon Poll was conducted between Oct. 23-27 and surveyed 710 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

 
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